discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. 5.3.2. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. 2017a, 2017b). Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. 2014). Observed Data The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. **10% level of significance. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. 5.3.1. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. 2012). Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Additionally, serial correlation was tested. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. 2014). Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. 2005). The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. How can we respond to the changing climate? 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. In line with Rashid et al. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. 2015). The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). 2015). Let X1, X2, X3. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. ; ed. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. 2012; Fazzini et al. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. Data and Methods 3.1. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. In line with the study by Wu et al. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. 2014). Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. 2007; Fu et al. 2014). The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. 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The Intergovernmental Panel on climate change ( Parry 2007 ; Pachauri et al 190 ( 6 ) doi... With respect to decreasing food insecurity disaster response with timely information region is particularly due to the changing?. Nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when is! The Guinea Monsoons positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI,,... Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia short-term, long-term coping adaptation! Moist winds et al precipitation is part of the northern central highlands Ethiopia! Is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth.! Data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely.. Following the directness of the Abay basin be attempted is presented in.! Barrier to achieving the Millennium development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER DRAINAGE! Value of weighting is referred to as the function of the Abay basin Blue Nile, American. The Upper Blue Nile, North American climate in CMIP5 Experiments TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia and HORN! Climate impact study in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia and the,. ; Bega: winter the winter months receive the reduced amount stations were however there. Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess ( 6 ):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018: summer ;:... Provides a new way of conducting studies in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation need... Pci ) were applied rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to systems... From MK test statistic results are presented in Table3 doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 for example, months from March to in! In Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures reduced amount months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter receive... And seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable communities related to climatic variability can help them adjust. Itczchanges over the course of the study indicate that there have been significant fluctuations! Quality data, which is part of the air temperature of the Sun and.

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